What the data shows
The upcoming match between Bayern Munich and Atalanta raises the question: Can Atalanta overcome a daunting 6-1 aggregate deficit in the Champions League Round of 16? The answer appears to be challenging, given Bayern’s dominant performance in the first leg and their historical success in two-legged ties.
Bayern Munich’s 6-1 victory in the first leg not only showcased their attacking prowess but also equaled Atalanta’s heaviest defeat in European competitions. With this significant lead, Bayern has progressed in 28 of their last 29 two-legged ties after winning the first leg away from home, indicating a strong likelihood of advancing further in the tournament.
However, Bayern will face the second leg without key players Joshua Kimmich and Michael Olise, both sidelined due to yellow card accumulation. This absence could impact their midfield dynamics, although Bayern’s depth in talent remains formidable. Additionally, the team is grappling with injuries to their top four goalkeeper options, leading to a choice between Jannis Bärtl or Leonard Prescott for the match, with Prescott likely making his senior team debut.
On the other hand, Atalanta enters this match struggling with form, having not secured a victory in their last five matches. Their last win was a 4-1 triumph over Borussia Dortmund, which seems a distant memory as they now face a significant challenge to overturn the aggregate score. Atalanta’s leading scorer, Gianluca Scamacca, who has netted 12 goals this season, will need to step up if they hope to mount a comeback.
Looking at the possible lineups, Bayern Munich may field a team that includes Prescott, Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer, Goretzka, Pavlovic, Karl, Gnabry, Diaz, and Jackson. Meanwhile, Atalanta could line up with Carnesecchi, Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac, Zappacosta, De Roon, Pasalic, Bernasconi, De Ketelaere, Zalewski, and Krstovic.
As the match approaches, Bayern’s Champions League form stands at W L W W W W, while Atalanta’s record is W L L L W L. This disparity in performance adds to the pressure on Atalanta, who must not only win but do so by a margin of five goals to advance.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the final lineup and any last-minute changes due to injuries or tactical adjustments. As the teams prepare for this critical encounter at the Allianz Arena in Munich, the stakes could not be higher for both clubs, with Bayern looking to solidify their dominance and Atalanta striving for an improbable comeback.
