Group F stakes for Japan and Sweden
Japan and Sweden are set to face each other in a significant FIFA World Cup Group F fixture in Dallas. Both teams are vying for a top-two finish in the group, with the outcome potentially impacting their progression to the knockout stages. Japan enters the match having secured a draw against the Netherlands and a decisive victory over Tunisia, placing them second in the group standings.
The Opta supercomputer has indicated Japan as the favourites for this upcoming match, with their victory predicted in 52.7% of simulations. Sweden, on the other hand, is given a 22.2% chance of winning, while a draw accounts for the remaining 25.1% of simulations. This will be the first time these two nations meet in a World Cup fixture.
Hajime Moriyasu‘s Japan side remains unbeaten in the tournament. Their previous match saw Daichi Kamada score an 89th-minute equaliser against the Netherlands, securing a valuable point. In their subsequent game against Tunisia, Kamada scored early, followed by a brace from Ayase Ueda and a goal from Junya Ito, leading to a 4-0 victory. This strong performance has positioned Japan favourably ahead of the knockout rounds.
For Japan, avoiding defeat against Sweden would mark only their second unbeaten World Cup group-stage campaign, a feat previously achieved in 2002 when they co-hosted the tournament. This would also extend their current nine-match unbeaten streak across all competitions, a momentum that Moriyasu aims to carry into the knockout stages. Japan has not lost in their last four World Cup matches, and a fifth consecutive match without defeat would make them only the second AFC nation to achieve this, following South Korea‘s six-match run between 1998 and 2002.
Sweden’s journey and key players
Sweden, managed by Graham Potter, has experienced a mixed campaign in Group F. They began with a 5-1 win against Tunisia but then suffered a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands on Matchday 2. This makes Sweden only the second team in World Cup history to both win and lose matches by at least a four-goal margin in the same tournament. The previous instance also involved Sweden, in 1938.
Despite facing only 10 shots against the Netherlands, seven were on target, with five resulting in goals. This defensive aspect is an area Potter is expected to address, particularly against Japan‘s dynamic attack. Japan has seen eight different players contribute to goals in this World Cup edition, matching their highest total from 2022. Ayase Ueda has been a standout performer for Japan, with three goal involvements, including two goals, which is a joint-tournament record for his nation.
For Sweden, Alexander Isak has been a key attacking force, scoring once and providing three assists. This achievement surpasses the most goal involvements by a Swedish player at a World Cup since 1966. The Opta supercomputer projects both Japan and the Netherlands to have a 100% chance of advancing to the round of 32, while Sweden holds a 91.5% probability of progressing, indicating that the top three teams in Group F are likely to move forward.
The match is scheduled for Friday, with kick-off at 00:00 BST, and will be broadcast on BBC Two. Japan currently has four points in Group F, while Sweden has three points. The Netherlands are expected to secure a comfortable win against Tunisia in their final group match, which would mean Japan needs to avoid defeat to secure second place in the group. However, Moriyasu‘s team has shown a tendency to play for a win rather than a draw, having come from behind twice against the Netherlands and also against Paraguay in the Kirin Cup in October, followed by a comeback victory against Brazil four days later.
The Opta supercomputer provides a predicted lineup for Japan that includes Zion Suzuki, Yukinari Sugawara, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Hiroki Ito, Wataru Endo, Ao Tanaka, Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Takefusa Kubo, and Ayase Ueda. For Sweden, the predicted lineup features Jacob Widell Zetterström, Victor Lindelöf, Isak Hien, Hjalmar Ekdal, Eric Smith, Ken Sema, Jesper Karlström, Mattias Svanberg, Anthony Elanga, Alexander Isak, and Viktor Gyökeres.
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Source: bbc.co.uk
