Reaction from the field
The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a significant warning for the month of April 2026, indicating that the country may face both floods and heat as the long rains season reaches its peak. The forecast suggests that while most regions will experience near-average rainfall, specific areas, particularly in North-eastern Kenya, are expected to receive above-average precipitation, raising the risk of localized flooding.
In detail, counties such as Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera are projected to see enhanced rainfall, which could lead to dangerous flooding conditions. This comes on the heels of a wet March that marked the onset of the long rains season, during which approximately 100 lives were lost due to heavy rains. The Kenya Met has cautioned communities in flood-prone areas to clear drainage channels and remain vigilant as the month progresses.
Conversely, the coastal regions of Kenya, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale, are forecasted to receive below-average rainfall throughout April. This disparity in rainfall patterns could exacerbate existing challenges for farmers and residents in these areas. The department noted, “The Coast faces the opposite problem,” highlighting the contrasting weather conditions across the country.
During the first half of April, rainfall is expected to be suppressed across much of Kenya, with occasional afternoon and evening storms likely. However, conditions are anticipated to change towards the end of the month, with intensified rainfall expected. This shift could lead to further complications for agricultural activities, especially for farmers in high-rainfall areas, who have been urged to reinforce drainage systems to prevent waterlogging.
In addition to rainfall concerns, warmer-than-average temperatures are projected for the Coast, North-eastern Kenya, and North-western Kenya. Meanwhile, cooler conditions are expected in the Highlands, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley. The variability in temperatures and rainfall could have significant implications for local agriculture and food security.
Residents in flood-prone zones are advised to keep drainage channels clear and avoid low-lying areas to mitigate risks associated with flash floods, soil erosion, and landslides during heavy rainfall events. The public has been warned to remain alert, as strong winds are also expected along the Kenyan coast, with wave heights ranging from 0.2 to 2.25 meters and wind speeds between 2 to 20 knots, which may affect small boats.
As the month progresses, the situation remains fluid, and details regarding the extent of rainfall and its impacts are still unfolding. The Kenya Met has emphasized the importance of preparedness and vigilance among communities as they navigate the potential challenges posed by the changing weather patterns.
