The Kenyan shilling, which had been relatively stable for months after gaining stability in the first half of 2024, has weakened significantly against the US dollar. As of April 1, 2026, the exchange rate reached Ksh130.0200, marking the first time the shilling has touched the 130 unit level since August 2024. This decline is attributed to increased demand for dollars by importers, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Prior to the onset of the Iran war on February 28, 2026, the shilling had maintained a stable exchange rate of around Sh129.02. However, the war has disrupted this stability, leading to a gradual depreciation of the currency. The Central Bank of Kenya has reported that the forex reserves stood at $14 billion at the end of last week, indicating some capacity to manage the currency’s volatility.
In the 12 months leading up to February 2026, Kenyans living in Gulf countries sent home $491.76 million in remittances, which accounted for 9.7 percent of Kenya’s total inflows of $5.051 billion during that period. The importance of these remittances cannot be understated, especially as the conflict in the Middle East poses risks to this vital source of income for many Kenyan families.
Higher oil prices are also a significant concern for the Kenyan economy, as fuel constitutes the largest import item. The ongoing conflict has threatened the stability of the shilling due to the increased strength of the dollar globally. Analysts have noted that the war not only affects the exchange rate but also the competitiveness of Kenyan exports in global markets.
Churchill Ogutu, an economist, remarked, “Even as the dollar gains globally, we haven’t seen wide movement for the shilling, save for a minor wobble.” This suggests that while the shilling is under pressure, the extent of its decline may not be as severe as initially feared. However, traders are cautious, with some opting to increase their dollar holdings in anticipation of further weakening of the shilling if the conflict persists.
A trader from a commercial bank noted, “Some of the buyers have added to their dollar holdings, in case the shilling weakens in the event the Middle East does not end soon.” This sentiment reflects a growing concern among market participants regarding the potential long-term impacts of the ongoing geopolitical tensions on the Kenyan economy.
The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) highlighted the dual consequences of the shilling’s depreciation, stating, “The consequence is twofold: exports risk diminished competitiveness in global markets while imports, particularly from the non-dollar countries, become comparatively less expensive.” This underscores the complex dynamics at play as the Kenyan economy navigates these turbulent waters.
As the situation continues to evolve, observers are closely monitoring the Central Bank of Kenya’s actions. The bank has made dollars available to the market to mitigate volatility, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the shilling can regain its footing or if further declines are inevitable amid ongoing global tensions.
