Somalia’s Federal Parliament approved the final set of amendments to the Provisional Constitution on 4 March 2026, concluding a 14-year constitutional review process. This significant legislative change introduces a semi-presidential system, allowing for a President to be elected directly by the people, while a Prime Minister will be appointed by the President.
The amendments were initially approved on 30 March 2024, with 212 out of 275 members of the House of the People and 42 out of 54 members of the Upper House voting in favor. The approval process has faced criticism, with some opposition members alleging that it was rushed, manipulative, and non-inclusive. The opposition continues to reject the amendments, citing a lack of legitimacy in the review process.
In addition to the governance changes, the amendments clarify the status of Benadir/Mogadishu as the capital and define powers among the Federal Government, Federal Member States, and Local Governments. Furthermore, the term of all elected institutions has been extended to five years, a move that could impact the political landscape significantly.
However, the approval of these amendments has not been without controversy. Following the adoption of the constitutional changes, Puntland suspended cooperation with the Federal Government, and Jubaland’s President also suspended relations, indicating rising tensions among the Federal Member States. Three out of six Federal Member States have ended their collaboration with the Federal Government over the amendments, raising concerns about the stability of governance in Somalia.
The constitutional review process has been ongoing for over 14 years, reflecting the complex political dynamics in Somalia and the challenges of state-building and regional autonomy. The amendments also regulate the Constitutional Court, strengthen judicial independence, and define court structures, while setting clear jurisdictions and coordination mechanisms for national security institutions.
In the backdrop of these developments, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded Somalia control of a disputed maritime zone in 2021, a decision that Kenya has rejected. This maritime dispute involves a 92,389-square-kilometer area that may contain significant oil and gas reserves, with estimates suggesting potential resources of 3.7 billion barrels of oil and 10 trillion cubic feet of gas in Kenya’s part of the Lamu Basin. The combined hydrocarbon potential of the Kenya-Somalia offshore corridor could plausibly translate into $200 billion to $500 billion in lifetime resource value, depending on recovery rates and long-term energy prices, according to expert Siyad Madey.
Saudi Arabia is also intensifying its engagement with Somalia, further impacting the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. As these changes unfold, the long-term impact of the constitutional amendments on Somalia’s political stability remains unclear. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the response of the international community to the constitutional amendments and the ongoing disputes between Federal Member States and the Federal Government.
