This announcement builds on the scale of the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, which has begun reshaping regional fuel markets. Dangote aims to replicate his $20 billion Nigerian project in East Africa. He plans to invest up to $40 billion across refining, petrochemicals, fertiliser blending plants, and manufacturing by 2030.

Yet, the project hinges on support from regional governments, particularly Kenya and Uganda. “I can give commitment… if they will support the refinery, we’ll build the identical one that we have in Nigeria,” Dangote stated. His Nigerian refinery currently exports around 1.1 billion litres of aviation fuel to Europe.

William Ruto, President of Kenya, emphasized the collaborative nature of the project. “We’re going to have a joint refinery in Tanga to benefit all of us because that refinery is going to take on board the oil from DRC, the oil from Kenya, the oil from South Sudan, and the oil from Uganda,” he said.

Officials believe this initiative could significantly enhance local fuel supply chains and contribute to industrialisation efforts across East Africa. However, observers note that ambitions may remain unrealized if dependence on external capital continues. Ruto expressed concern about this issue: “Our ambitions will remain unrealized if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials for their own industries.”

By exporting raw materials and importing finished products, Dangote warned that countries are impoverishing their populations. The new refinery represents a potential shift towards greater self-sufficiency for East African nations.

If supported by regional governments, the refinery could be operational within four to five years. This timeline remains tentative as no formal agreements have been finalized yet.

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On October 15, 2023, Dangote stated, “I can give commitment to the two presidents that are here: if they will support the refinery, we’ll build the identical one that we have in Nigeria – 650,000 barrels.” This ambitious project has a delivery timeline of four to five years, contingent upon agreements among regional governments.

The East African Crude Oil Pipeline may serve as a crucial link for transporting oil from the DRC and South Sudan. However, officials have not confirmed the exact logistics of this arrangement yet.

Currently, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania are gearing up for AFCON 2027. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has set mid-2026 as the deadline for facility readiness. A new oversight body has been established to streamline decision-making for these preparations.

In addition to the refinery project, leaders emphasize regional unity through initiatives like the PAMOJA Visa Framework. The three Ministers agreed to hold periodic consultative meetings to finalize this framework.

Despite optimistic projections, challenges remain. Tanzania faces a projected fuel import shortfall of 86 million tonnes by 2040. Uganda’s domestic refinery can only process 60,000 barrels per day — a fraction of what is needed.

William Ruto remarked on the importance of self-sufficiency: “Our ambitions will remain unrealized if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials for their own industries.” This sentiment underscores the urgency behind the refinery project.

The recent election violence in Tanzania claimed 518 lives. This tragic backdrop complicates efforts towards stability and development in the region. The BBC verified multiple videos showing police shooting at protestors during this unrest.

As these developments unfold, stakeholders will closely monitor how Dangote’s refinery affects not just Tanzania but also its neighbors. Regional cooperation will be vital for maximizing benefits from this significant investment.

The future of East Africa’s fuel supply chains depends on successful collaboration among governments and investors. With projects like Dangote’s oil refinery on the horizon, there is hope for enhanced energy independence and economic growth.

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