The average price for 95 octane unleaded petrol in the US has increased by more than 40 percent since February. The spike comes as the US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, gasoline prices averaged about 87 US cents per litre.

By the end of April, diesel prices in the US stood at 196.11 cents per litre. In Australia, the average price for a litre of unleaded petrol is 185.4 cents, reflecting a reduction due to the federal government’s halving of the fuel excise. Diesel prices there have decreased from a peak of 328.4 cents to 260 cents.

The inflation rate in Australia rose to 4.6 percent in March, partly due to automotive fuel prices. Experts suggest that tight supply is affecting even major exporters like Australia.

Expert opinions:

• Ben Fahimnia noted that many cities have recently experienced a downward phase, allowing pump prices to fall despite rising upstream costs.
• Peter Robertson explained that the US was less reliant on oil imports, which prevented significant price spikes compared to Australia.
• Lurion De Mello warned that tight supply is putting pressure on fuel prices globally.

The situation remains fluid as officials monitor developments. Prices are likely to increase in June when the fuel excise cut expires and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues.

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Motorists in Nairobi are currently experiencing an acute fuel shortage, with many petrol stations running dry. This situation has led to long queues at the few stations still dispensing fuel, causing significant inconvenience for drivers.

Taxi drivers and boda boda operators have reported worsening fuel availability, exacerbating the crisis. Some fuel attendants have been accused of rationing supplies and selling selectively, further complicating the issue.

The Ministry of Energy has assured the public that Kenya has sufficient fuel stocks to last at least three months. However, the reality on the ground contradicts these official assurances, as many motorists struggle to find fuel.

International oil prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with a barrel exceeding $111. This increase in prices has raised concerns about the potential for increased transport costs and inflation in the country.

Experts warn that the ongoing fuel shortage could have broader economic implications, affecting various sectors reliant on transportation. Some dealers are reportedly engaging in backdoor sales at inflated prices, with reports of prices being Sh2 above current rates.

Steve Wakio, a frustrated motorist, expressed his struggles, stating, “I have really suffered today. No petrol station in South B, South C and Nairobi West has fuel.” Another driver, Derrick Keya, noted, “Petrol stations seem to be hiding fuel.” Jerome Okumu shared a troubling experience, saying, “Someone told me to send money if I want 20 litres. He is, however, selling at Sh2 above current prices.”

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) had not responded to queries regarding the shortage, leaving many questions unanswered. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact reasons for the fuel shortage, and the impact on the broader economy remains unclear.

The conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, as stated by the International Energy Agency. This situation has led to significant disruptions in oil supply chains, contributing to the current crisis in Kenya.

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