The average price for 95 octane unleaded petrol in the US has increased by more than 40 percent since February. The spike comes as the US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, gasoline prices averaged about 87 US cents per litre.

By the end of April, diesel prices in the US stood at 196.11 cents per litre. In Australia, the average price for a litre of unleaded petrol is 185.4 cents, reflecting a reduction due to the federal government’s halving of the fuel excise. Diesel prices there have decreased from a peak of 328.4 cents to 260 cents.

The inflation rate in Australia rose to 4.6 percent in March, partly due to automotive fuel prices. Experts suggest that tight supply is affecting even major exporters like Australia.

Expert opinions:

• Ben Fahimnia noted that many cities have recently experienced a downward phase, allowing pump prices to fall despite rising upstream costs.
• Peter Robertson explained that the US was less reliant on oil imports, which prevented significant price spikes compared to Australia.
• Lurion De Mello warned that tight supply is putting pressure on fuel prices globally.

The situation remains fluid as officials monitor developments. Prices are likely to increase in June when the fuel excise cut expires and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues.

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The U.S. Africa Command stated that the incident remains under investigation. Officials have not disclosed the cause of the disappearance or the specific circumstances surrounding it.

In a related development, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will begin guiding ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. This move comes as tensions with Iran escalate, particularly concerning its nuclear plan.

On another front, seven OPEC+ countries decided to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day starting June 2026. This increase responds to the recent withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC+. The adjustments are part of voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023.

Additionally, Trump stated that the U.S. plans to withdraw more than 5,000 troops from Germany. The Pentagon has indicated that this withdrawal is expected to be completed within a timeframe of 6 to 12 months.

The situation underscores the complexities of U.S. military presence abroad and its implications for global oil markets and regional stability. Experts suggest that these developments could create further uncertainty in an already volatile environment.

The upcoming months will be critical as both military operations and diplomatic efforts unfold amidst these shifting dynamics.

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However, on April 13, 2026, at 10 a.m. eastern time, the situation changed dramatically. The United States Navy announced it would begin blockading all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. This decisive moment was marked by a statement from former President Donald Trump, declaring, “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” This blockade targets all vessels associated with Iranian ports and coastal areas, fundamentally altering the dynamics of oil exports from Iran.

The immediate effects of this blockade are profound. With the announcement, oil prices surged, with US crude oil jumping 8% to $104.24 a barrel. This increase reflects the market’s reaction to the anticipated reduction in oil supply from Iran, which has 11 major ports, eight located in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman regions. The blockade is intended to exert severe pressure on the Iranian economy by restricting its exports, which are vital for its financial stability.

Experts are expressing concern over the broader implications of this blockade. Trita Parsi noted that “taking more oil off the market — particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf — will drive oil prices further up … [to] around $150 per barrel.” This potential spike in oil prices could exacerbate the ongoing global energy crisis, which is already strained by various geopolitical tensions.

Iran has responded to the blockade with warnings, stating that the global economy would pay the price for such actions. The Iranian government has previously closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to conflicts with Israel and the United States, indicating a willingness to escalate tensions further. Zohreh Kharazmi remarked, “If this blockade becomes a contest between the resilience of the Islamic Republic and the resilience of global markets, it will not take long to see who is losing.” This statement underscores the potential for a prolonged economic standoff.

As the blockade takes effect, the uncertainties surrounding its duration and effectiveness remain. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how long the United States plans to maintain this blockade and whether it will lead to further military escalation in the region. The potential for missteps in such a volatile environment raises alarms among analysts and policymakers alike.

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional chokepoint; it is a vital passage for approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil. The implications of this blockade extend beyond Iran, affecting global energy markets and economic stability. With the situation evolving, stakeholders worldwide are closely monitoring developments, as the consequences of this blockade could resonate throughout the global economy.

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Iran’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear program has been a significant point of contention in these discussions. Currently, Iran possesses a stockpile of 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which is sufficient to fuel 11 nuclear bombs if further enriched. This stockpile raises concerns among U.S. officials about Iran’s potential nuclear capabilities.

The negotiations have been complicated by broader geopolitical issues, particularly Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for global oil supplies. The U.S. and Iran have struggled to bridge differences on this matter, with President Trump previously threatening to blockade the Strait if Iran did not relinquish its control.

In a show of military presence, the U.S. Central Command sent two guided missile destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz to challenge Iranian control. This military maneuver underscores the heightened tensions and the potential for conflict in the region.

The failure of recent U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad has raised questions about the potential for renewed hostilities. “The simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon, not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term? … We haven’t seen that yet. We hope that we will,” Vance added, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s intentions.

Iran’s nuclear program was significantly damaged by military actions in June 2025, but it was not completely obliterated. Experts suggest that it would take Iran around two years to reestablish its nuclear program to levels similar to those before the military actions.

During the conflict, Iran reportedly produced between 200 to 300 new missiles per month, with approximately 90 percent of those intercepted by Israeli defenses. A total of 500 missiles were fired over 38 days of conflict, highlighting the intensity of the military engagements.

Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf noted, “My colleagues on the Iranian delegation … raised forward-looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.” This statement reflects the ongoing distrust and challenges faced in reaching a diplomatic resolution.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact status of Iran’s nuclear program following the military actions in June 2025, leaving the international community on edge as negotiations continue.

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The recent negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran raise a critical question: Are these talks a genuine effort towards peace, or merely a strategic maneuver? Trump asserts that Iran is eager for a deal to end the ongoing war, which has already claimed over 2,000 lives and disrupted the global economy. He has extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by five days, indicating a willingness to negotiate.

However, Iran has denied that any talks have taken place with the United States, creating a significant gap in communication. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a prominent Iranian official, stated, “No negotiations have been held with the US,” which raises doubts about the sincerity of the U.S. claims. This contradiction highlights the complexities involved in the negotiations and the challenges both sides face in reaching a consensus.

Trump’s approach includes a bold statement that if a deal is reached, the U.S. would take control of Iran’s enriched uranium. As of June 2025, Iran reportedly possesses 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of highly enriched uranium, having completed 99% of the centrifuge work necessary for producing weapons-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons. This alarming statistic underscores the urgency of the negotiations and the potential consequences of failure.

The ongoing conflict has also seen significant casualties beyond Iran, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon resulting in over 1,000 deaths and displacing more than 1 million people. The humanitarian crisis is exacerbated by the war, which has seen Iran’s Health Ministry report a death toll surpassing 1,500. The situation remains dire, and the stakes are high for all parties involved.

Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country releases its hold on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil shipments. Ahmad Zeidabadi, an Iranian commentator, warned that a halt in electricity supply to 90 million people would plunge homes and streets into darkness, further complicating the humanitarian situation.

Despite the tensions, Trump indicated there is a “very good chance” that a deal will be reached this week, suggesting a possible breakthrough in negotiations. However, the effectiveness of mediation efforts by Turkey and Egypt remains uncertain, as does the exact nature of the talks between the U.S. and Iran. Details remain unconfirmed, leaving observers questioning the future of these negotiations.

As the situation unfolds, the involvement of key figures such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in the negotiations may play a crucial role in shaping the outcome. Additionally, international leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu and Keir Starmer are closely monitoring the developments, given the potential implications for regional stability.

In summary, the negotiations between Trump and Iran are at a pivotal juncture. With the potential for peace hanging in the balance, the coming days will be critical in determining whether a resolution can be achieved or if the conflict will escalate further.

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