Germany’s Return to Knockout Stage
Germany is set to participate in their first World Cup knockout stage match since the 2014 final, as they face Paraguay in the last 32 of the 2026 World Cup. The match will take place at Boston Stadium. The Opta supercomputer has identified Germany as strong favourites for this encounter, giving them a 71.2% chance of winning within 90 minutes, compared to Paraguay’s 11.6%.
Germany topped Group E despite not always delivering convincing performances in the pool stage. Their campaign began with a significant 7-1 victory over Curaçao. They then secured a 2-1 win against Ivory Coast, with Deniz Undav playing a crucial role in the turnaround. The group stage concluded with a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador. Despite some inconsistencies, Germany successfully navigated the initial stage of the tournament, a feat they did not achieve in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
The last knockout game Germany played was the 2014 final in Brazil, where Mario Götze’s goal secured a 1-0 victory over Argentina after extra-time. Since then, Germany has progressed from five consecutive World Cup knockout matches against South American nations. Their overall record in their last nine knockout games includes eight wins and one loss, which was a 1-0 defeat to Spain in the 2010 semi-finals.
Paraguay’s Knockout History and Challenges
Paraguay enters the knockout stage having recovered from an initial 4-1 defeat to co-hosts United States. They then secured a 1-0 victory against Türkiye, despite Miguel Almirón being sent off, and concluded their group stage with a goalless draw against Australia. Julio Enciso has been a key player for Paraguay, assisting both of their goals in the group stage and leading his team in chances created with five, open-play chances created with three, and big chances created with one. He also leads in expected assists with 0.22 and high-intensity pressures in the opponent’s half with 84.
This marks Paraguay’s fifth appearance in the World Cup knockout stages. Historically, they have progressed only once from their five previous knockout ties. This sole progression occurred against a non-European nation, when they won a penalty shootout against Japan in the round of 16 in 2010. A notable statistic for Paraguay is their failure to score in any of their five World Cup knockout games, which represents the longest such run in the tournament’s history.
Paraguay has faced Germany twice before, including once in the World Cup. In the 2002 World Cup in Japan and South Korea, Germany secured a 1-0 victory in the last-16 with a late goal from Oliver Neuville. Their other encounter was a 3-3 draw in a 2013 friendly. Paraguay has lost all four of their previous World Cup knockout ties against European opposition, failing to score in each of those matches.
Key Players and Managerial Milestones
For Germany, Deniz Undav, who has scored three goals in this World Cup, is expected to start up front for the first time. Kai Havertz will likely play as a No10, with Jamal Musiala dropping out of the starting lineup. Paraguay will see the return of Miguel Almirón after his suspension, and Gabriel Avalos is set to start up front.
Julian Nagelsmann, aged 38 years and 341 days on the day of the match, is set to become the youngest manager to lead a World Cup knockout match since France’s Henri Michel in the 1986 third-place play-off. Additionally, Bayern Munich goalkeeper Manuel Neuer could achieve a significant milestone; if he starts, it will be his 23rd World Cup match, surpassing Lothar Matthäus and Miroslav Klose to become Germany’s all-time leading starter in World Cup matches.
The reward for the winners of this match is a fixture against either France or Sweden in the last 16.
The Opta supercomputer predicts Germany has an 82.3% chance of reaching the last 16, with a 4.3% chance of winning the tournament, placing them eighth among the remaining 32 teams. Paraguay’s chances of advancing to the next round are 17.7%, and their probability of lifting the trophy is 0.1%.
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Source: theguardian.com
